US scientists say techniques used in weather forecasting can be used to generate local forecasts of seasonal influenza outbreaks. Researchers at Columbia University in New York and the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., said predicting the timing and severity of flu outbreaks would help health officials and the general public better prepare for them. The peak of flu season can vary widely from region to region and from year to year, but the new forecast system can provide \"a window into what can happen week to week as flu prevalence rises and falls,\" Columbia environmental health sciences Professor Jeffrey Shaman said. Wintertime U.S. flu epidemics tend to occur following very dry weather, the researchers said, and a prediction model incorporating this finding used estimates of flu-related sickness from the winters of 2003-04 to 2008-09 in New York City to retrospectively generate weekly flu forecasts in a test, an NCAR release reported Tuesday. The researchers said the technique could predict the peak timing of the outbreak more than seven weeks in advance of the actual peak. \"Analogous to weather prediction, this system can potentially be used to estimate the probability of regional outbreaks of the flu several weeks in advance,\" NCAR scientist Alicia Karspeck said. In the future flu forecasts could conceivably be disseminated on local television news program along with the weather report, Shaman said. \"Because we are all familiar with weather broadcasts, when we hear that there is an 80 percent chance of rain, we all have an intuitive sense of whether or not we should carry an umbrella,\" he said. \"I expect we will develop a similar comfort level and confidence in flu forecasts and develop an intuition of what we should do to protect ourselves in response to different forecast outcomes.\"
GMT 14:01 2018 Thursday ,30 August
Expat with rare heart disorder gets life-saving surgeryGMT 00:18 2018 Tuesday ,23 January
Boy with 10-pound tumour on face diesGMT 21:23 2018 Monday ,22 January
All set for first global medical tourism conference in DubaiGMT 22:46 2018 Sunday ,21 January
Second face transplant for FrenchmanGMT 07:51 2018 Saturday ,20 January
Trio aquitted of negligence in Canada railway disasterGMT 10:57 2018 Thursday ,18 January
Breastfeeding for 6 months cuts diabetes risk in half: studyGMT 16:10 2018 Wednesday ,17 January
Child mummy in Italy had hepatitis, not smallpoxGMT 18:36 2018 Tuesday ,16 January
Greece strikes cause transport chaos, healthcare delays

Maintained and developed by Arabs Today Group SAL.
All rights reserved to Arab Today Media Group 2025 ©
Maintained and developed by Arabs Today Group SAL.
All rights reserved to Arab Today Media Group 2025 ©
Send your comments
Your comment as a visitor