Spain's conservatives push for government after uncertain vote

Spain's ruling conservatives made a fresh push Monday to form a government following months of political paralysis after emerging stronger from another inconclusive general election.

The Popular Party (PP) was the big winner of Sunday's elections, the second in six months, which played out against a background of turbulence from Britain's shock vote to leave the European Union that analysts said may have influenced the polls.

The fractured results were much the same as after uncertain December polls, with the PP coming first, followed by the Socialists, a far-left coalition led by Podemos and market-friendly upstart Ciudadanos.
But unlike the other three parties which lost seats, votes or both, the PP came out strengthened from the election, beating expectations and its December score with 137 seats in the 350-strong lower house of parliament.

However, the PP, led by incumbent prime minister Mariano Rajoy, is still far from an absolute majority and needs support from other parties to form a government -- no easy task.

But the extra seats give Rajoy more clout in coalition negotiations, coupled with the fact that parties are under pressure to reach a deal to avoid a third round of elections.

An emboldened Rajoy held his hand out to parties on Monday and particularly the Socialists, telling Spanish radio he would speak to the PSOE first, "which remains our country's second political force."

- Rajoy or no Rajoy? -
Looking ahead, the PP could team up with market friendly Ciudadanos, but their combined total number of seats would still not be enough to form a majority centre-right government and win the necessary vote of confidence.

So they will need to court smaller regional parties and the Socialists (PSOE), which came second in Sunday's elections with 85 seats, its worst score in modern history.

The PSOE could decide to abstain in the parliamentary vote to let a government through and avoid taking the country to a third round of elections.

But angry over a string of corruption scandals that have hit the PP and severe austerity measures under Rajoy's watch, it may not want to back a government with him at the helm.

In fact, rival parties before the election had insisted on the fact that they wanted Rajoy to go, whatever the outcome.
"We won't support Rajoy," said Cesar Luena, number-two of the Socialist party, setting the scene for what could be tough coalition negotiations.

Asked whether the Socialists would consider abstaining, Luena said this would be an issue they would discuss when the time came.

"But the PSOE wants to replace Rajoy," he said.

In its pre-election campaign, Ciudadanos had also called for Rajoy to step down.

Now though, the PP's better-than-expected results make this more difficult.

"Rajoy has come out strengthened internally in his party and no one will now be able to tell him that he will block the formation of a government," said Jose Pablo Ferrandiz of polling firm Metroscopia.
Brexit influence -

The big loser in Sunday's elections was the far-left coalition composed of Podemos and green-communists Izquierda Unida, which opinion polls had suggested would come second and overtake the Socialists as the country's main left-wing force.

Analysts said the PP had conducted a successful campaign against the Unidos Podemos coalition, emphasising the need for stability in the face of "radicalism" and "populism."

Britain's shock exit from the European Union last week only contributed to voters' desire for stability, they added.

Spain's stock market briefly celebrated the conservative election win on Monday morning, with shares in its main Ibex 35 index shooting up more than three percent before going back down in line with other markets weighed down by Brexit.

"Many voters opted for the old parties, the parties that are more anchored to the idea of Europe," said Anton Losada, a political scientist at the University of Santiago de Compostela.

"There is a sensation of entering territory where we don't really know what is going to happen (with Brexit), and in this territory, best to bet on what we know works."

Source: AFP