Dutch referendum on Ukraine hinges on popularity of European integration

Dutch voters remain divided when they go to the polls on Wednesday for a referendum on a Ukraine-European Union agreement, as the voting may turn out to be more about Europe than Ukraine.

The Ukraine-EU Association Agreement to be voted on is a treaty between the EU and Ukraine on political, economic and a broad range of legislation and regulation topics.

The EU has similar agreements with Turkey, Chile and Morocco, and a number of other countries.

Although in the agreement nothing is said about an EU membership of Ukraine, many Dutch people think differently. According to a poll by opinion poll agency Ipsos, requested by national broadcaster NOS, 46 percent of the Dutch citizens consider the Association Agreement as the first step toward Ukrainian membership of the European Union.

Stem voor Nederland (Vote for the Netherlands) is the main organization campaigning for a "yes" vote in the referendum. They strongly support the agreement with Ukraine, as the group believes it contributes to stability on the borders, provides new opportunities for the Dutch industry.

The Dutch government is said to be in favor of the agreement, but has not openly campaigned for a "yes" vote.

According to a poll by TV news program EenVandaag, conducted by research company GfK, 59 percent of those decide to vote said they are against the agreement.

In addition, polls of newspapers De Telegraaf and De Volkskrant show 62 and 57 percent "no" respectively and pollster Maurice de Hond said that 66 percent of voters who definitely claim to vote will go for a "no" vote.

Antipathy against the EU was mentioned as the main reason to vote against the agreement.

All people of Dutch nationality aged 18 or older may join the referendum. A 30-percent voter turnout will make the referendum valid. Due to the importance of the turnout, national broadcaster NOS on Wednesday decided not to report on provisional turnout figures to prevent influence on the outcome.

According to De Telegraaf and De Volkskrant, the turnout is forecast to exceed 30 percent, with De Telegraaf predicting 35 percent and De Volkskrant 43 percent. However, pollster Maurice de Hond expects a turnout of only 25 percent.

A "no" vote in the Dutch referendum means the agreement cannot enter into force, as all EU member states are required to validate it.

"A 'no' vote can lead to a major continental crisis," European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker warned in an interview with Dutch newspaper NRC Handelsblad.

"Let's not turn the referendum into a referendum on Europe. That would be what populists want -- to blow up the EU," Juncker said.

In an interview with Dutch TV program Nieuwsuur, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said he was confident that his countrymen would vote yes.

Source: XINHUA