Highlighting Potential Outcomes In An Uncertain World

The annual Arab Strategy Forum represents a significant occasion to debate global issues and foresee the future effects on various countries. It host a who’s-who of decision-makers and experts who help discover new facts that usually come from deliberations, as is often said in philosophy.

The 15th edition of the forum saw heated deliberations over the rapid and serious developments taking place all over. His Highness Shaikh Mohammad Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice-President and Prime Minister of the UAE and Ruler of Dubai, made it clear that “The world now is going through various political and economic changes and the region will experience new interactions in the year ahead so that making investments to understand the future will remain the best way to maintain interests.”

Yes indeed — foreseeing the future does help make right decisions to deal with transformations.

Among the issues raised and analysed, only two took centre stage at the Forum. The first was related to the prospect of economic conditions in 2017, especially that which links global growth and oil prices, which particularly concerns oil producing countries.

This is because growth rates feature prominently in determining demand for energy sources and the financial policies of major consuming economies like the US, which raised its interest rates last week. This will benefit Gulf economies and even some of European Union member states.

Addressing the topic, participants noted that rapid changes have complicated economic forecasts. The coming period, they said, will see continuous economic fluctuations combined with slow but steady global growth that would open up some chances that can be utilised for growth.

The other issue raised related to Donald Trump’s win. The Forum tried to foretell the new US administration approaches, which will, absolutely, influence the economic, political, and security situation in the world due to its inherent advantage as the world’s largest economic and military power.

Although the main session — at which the former UK prime minister David Cameron and Leon Panetta, former director of the US Central Intelligence Agency and former Secretary of Defence gave their remarks — touched on the expected policies to be followed by the Trump administration, the final session delved deeply into his expected policies.

A speaker highlighted that in order to understand the upcoming president, we have to take into consideration three main issues. First, how will US foreign policies be made? Second, the importance of US interests spanning various parts of the world and, third, determining possible opportunities and threats as well as sources of terrorism.

During the sessions, discussions on this issue were broadened, but the key focus was on how Trump will deal with the Iranian issue, especially the nuclear agreement that he earlier promised to annul, besides its expansionist policies in the region, let alone support of terrorism.

The speaker also said — a view that might not necessarily match with future outcomes — the new administration will raise an outcry about Iran but will not dissolve the nuclear agreement as Trump promised during his campaign. He noted that Trump’s administration should pay attention to the security of its allies and the freedom of navigation that is threatened by Iran and Al Houthi militias.

Meanwhile, the Forum’s sponsors should be thanked for their efforts to organise such events during which many global issues could be discussed and of particular significance to the volatile Arab region.

However, these developments seem to be ambiguous and changeable and some of which will not come to light in the first months of Trump’s accession. This requires gearing up to all possible scenarios to avoid — even reduce — the effect of potential impact and harness positive ones to serve the interests of Arab and Gulf states alike.

source : gulfnews