There’s No “UR” In “Team”

As the dust begins to settle two days after the Duma elections, the party of power has some serious thinking to do. After its unprecedented poor showing, in which it garnered just around 50 percent of the vote, United Russia lost its constitutional majority and will be forced to do something it never has before: compromise with other parties. But the real repercussions of the vote, experts said, may be more far-reaching.After Sunday’s elections, United Russia will have only 238 seats in Parliament – down from the 315 it previously enjoyed. According to Russian law, only an absolute majority – 226 votes – is needed to pass run of the mill legislation, such as on social or economic issues. Yet for major changes, such as in the Constitution or the federal budget, United Russia would need the constitutional majority it lost after Sunday’s vote to pass party-sponsored bills.The look on the ruling tandem’s faces on Sunday evening said it all. As President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin took turns making statements to the press, both were visibly shaken. They struggled in vain to explain their party’s 15 percent drop in electoral support compared to the 2007 elections. What came out was perhaps the closest thing to admitting an electoral failure observers will hear from them: while Putin said the vote was “optimal” and “reflected the real situation in the country,” Medvedev commented on the fact that the party of power will have to play ball with others in the future. “We will have to form agreements through coalitions and blocs,” he said. “This is democracy. Our partners from other parties have said they are prepared to do this, and that makes me very happy because it means our democracy is strengthening.” Even chief Kremlin ideologist Vladislav Surkov seems to be coming to terms with United Russia’s drop in support, curiously voicing a necessity to better cater to the growing amount of citizens unhappy with the ruling party. In a radio interview with broadcaster Sergei Minayev, Surkov said society needs a “massive liberal party” in order to represent the interests of “disgruntled urban communities,” Vedomosti reported on December 6.Amidst growing speculation of the ruling party’s future course, one thing seems certain: gone are the days of United Russia’s commanding supermajority in Parliament, which saw sweeping changes that many observers have chalked up to Russia’s rollback of democracy under Putin’s tenure. Perhaps the most prominent of these was the abolishment of direct elections for regional governors in 2005, which required a constitutional majority to pass into federal law. Also noteworthy is the amendment to the Constitution, which added another year to the presidential term limit – now six years – conveniently in time for Putin’s all but certain return to the presidency. Now, United Russia will have to either think twice or consult its fellow parliamentarians from other factions before attempting to push through any such changes. But it’s a position that the party of power has never quite experienced, and one which could make it quite uncomfortable, according to political expert Alexei Makarkin. “The art of compromise is inextricably linked with its practice, and there is almost no time to work on it now,” he wrote in Vedomosti on December 6. “More than that, [United Russia’s] partners will be less satisfied than they have been before.”Other experts, however, point to the creeping positive changes Sunday’s vote may bring to the Russian political system. Richard Sakwa, an associate at Chatham House’s Russian and Eurasia Program, said the outcome of Sunday’s vote shows that despite the regime’s personalized politics and its use of administrative resources, political institutions – primarily elections – still matter. “Let’s be counterintuitive and say that these elections show that Russian democratic institutions still have some viability and life in them,” he said. Sakwa added that the greater number of opposition parliamentarians will add a bit of dynamism to a legislature which for years has largely been a rubber-stamp body: “I think the Duma is going to be a much more genuine place for debate and policy discussion, which, of course, it really needs to be,” he said.Besides the Communist Party, other factions saw an increase in their Duma representation. The Communist Party won 20 percent of the vote, Just Russia garnered more than 13 percent, and the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia secured nearly 12 percent. What’s more, the current elected Duma will preside for a term of five – instead of four – years, after changes to the Constitution in 2008. Sakwa expressed hope that despite its image as a Kremlin-sanction party, Just Russia, in particular, will be able play a more meaningful role in the Duma. Sakwa also noted that the vote serves as a reflection of Putin’s own popularity ahead of the presidential elections in March. He said voters issued “a clear warning” that, besides a fundamental change in the system of rule, they’ll need to see Putin recast himself as a genuine pluralist. “Even people who were willing to give Putin the benefit of the doubt earlier are no longer willing to do so unless he becomes a ‘new Putin,’” Sakwa said.