Egypt in despair, resolves to protect Christians

Egypt's response to the latest deadly attack against its sizable Christian minority may be a sign of both despair and resolve.

The Arab world's most populous nation, Egypt has for years been fighting militants in the northern Sinai Peninsula. The government had so far succeeded in containing them in that remote and rugged northeast corner of the country and foiled repeated attempts to seize and keep territory.

But the violence has now spilled over onto the mainland, with an increasing number of high-profile attacks, including four that targeted Christians since December. The string of attacks has highlighted an ongoing vulnerability and a worrying lack of reliable intelligence by Egypt's robust security forces.

Unlike the attacks in Sinai, which have mostly targeted soldiers, police and suspected collaborators, the attacks on Christians have attracted unwanted international attention and stymied Egypt's desperate efforts to revive its tourism industry, a traditional backbone of its now-ailing economy.

Egypt's general-turned president has, since taking office in 2014, declared uncompromising resolve to defeat the militants. He also seems willing to sideline and disenfranchise almost all militant groups with a political agenda, arguing that violent and peaceful groups feed off each other. He has backed up his vow to restore security to this nation of 93 million with massive arms deals.

But, can the attacks on Christians be stopped? The answer is probably not, but the government can hope to reduce the frequency.

President of Egypt, Abdel Fattah Al Sisi, and his military say the attackers have come from eastern Libya, sneaking into Egypt across the porous desert border. He claims security forces have, over the past two years, intercepted some 1,000 four-wheel drive vehicles that militants used to enter Egypt; 300 were caught in the last three months alone.

Egypt has pushed for lifting the international arms embargo against Libya, hoping that such action will give its main ally in Libya, General Khalifa Hifter, a decisive advantage in his three-year campaign against Libya's various militant groups.

Ominously, security officials say airstrikes against suspected militant training bases in Sudan, Egypt's southern neighbour, could not be ruled out. Al Sisi said on Friday he would strike at militant bases wherever they might be if militants who trained there launch attacks inside Egypt.

Egypt's relations with Sudan are currently fraught with tension over a long-running border dispute, making it easier for Cairo to justify military action there. Already, according to officials, the military is closely monitoring the remote desert triangle where the borders of Egypt, Libya and Sudan meet in Egypt's remote southwest corner. At home, officials said a host of measures were under consideration to better protect Christians - whose religious calendar is packed with vulnerable pilgrimages. One measure is to suspend such pilgrimages or closely coordinate the movement of pilgrims with security forces. Another option is to significantly step up security outside churches and roads leading to monasteries, which are mostly remote and deep in the desert.

However, it will be a nightmare scenario if the attacks still continue. Egypt's Christians number about 10 per cent of the country's population and they have historically been an integral part of its social fabric, not a minority that lives in seclusion.

The danger here is that if the attacks continue, the perception that authorities cannot protect Christians would undermine Egypt's image as a stable and secure nation. Another equally grim scenario is, as the attacks continue, an alarmingly large number of Christians would flee the country to seek refuge in the West, joining an already large community of Coptic Christians in the diaspora.

Symbolically, a significantly depleted Christian community, as a result of migration, would undermine the country's carefully constructed image as a nation of diversity and religious and ethnic tolerance in a Middle East torn by sectarian and ethnic strife.

Egypt has already been in the midst of a major crackdown against militants since 2013. Last week, the government blocked nearly two dozen social media sites it said were sympathetic with or apologetic of militant groups. Public space has been significantly eroded and rights groups suppressed.

With the insurgency showing no sign of abating, authorities are unlikely to shy away from doing more.

Source: Khaleej Times