worstcase global warming scenarios not credible study
Last Updated : GMT 05:17:37
Emiratesvoice, emirates voice
Emiratesvoice, emirates voice
Last Updated : GMT 05:17:37
Emiratesvoice, emirates voice

Worst-case global warming scenarios not credible: study

Emiratesvoice, emirates voice

Emiratesvoice, emirates voice Worst-case global warming scenarios not credible: study

Worst-case global warming scenarios not credible: study
london - Emiratesvoice

Earth’s surface will almost certainly not warm up four or five degrees Celsius by 2100, according to a study which, if correct, voids worst-case UN climate change predictions.

A revised calculation of how greenhouse gases drive up the planet’s temperature reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half, researchers said in the report, published in the journal Nature.

“Our study all but rules out very low and very high climate sensitivities,” said lead author Peter Cox, a professor at the University of Exeter.How effectively the world slashes CO2 and methane emissions, improves energy efficiency and develops technologies to remove CO2 from the air will determine whether climate change remains manageable or unleashes a maelstrom of human misery.

But uncertainty about how hot things will get also stems from the inability of scientists to nail down a very simple question: By how much will Earth’s average surface temperature go up if the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is doubled?

That “known unknown” is called equilibrium climate sensitivity, and for the last 25 years the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – the ultimate authority on climate science – has settled on a range of 1.5C to 4.5C (2.7 to 8.1 degrees Fahrenheit).

Cox and colleagues, using a new methodology, have come up with a far narrower range: 2.2C to 3.4C, with a best estimate of 2.8C.

If accurate, it precludes the most destructive doomsday scenarios. “These scientists have produced a more accurate estimate of how the planet will respond to increasing CO2 levels,” said Piers Forster, director of the Priestley International Centre for Climate at the University of Leeds.Gabi Hegerl, a climate scientist at the University of Edinburgh who, like Forster, did not take part in the research, added: “Having lower probability for very high sensitivity is reassuring. Very high sensitivity would have made it extremely hard to limit climate change according to the Paris targets.”

The landmark Paris climate agreement in 2015 called for capping global warming at “well under” 2C compared to a pre-industrial benchmark, and pursuing efforts for a 1.5C ceiling.

The findings should not be seen as taking pressure off the need to tackle climate change, the authors and other experts warned. “We will still see significant warming and impacts this century if we don’t increase our ambition to reduce CO2 emissions,” said Forster.

Even a 1.5C increase will have consequences. With a single degree Celsius of warming so far, the Earth is already coping with a crescendo of climate impacts including deadly droughts, erratic rainfall, and storm surges engorged by rising seas.

A 3.5 C world, scientists say, could pull at the fabric of civilisation.

Since industrialisation took off in the early 19th century, CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere have increased by nearly half, from 280 parts per million to 407 parts per million.Up to now global warming predictions have focused on the historical temperature record.

Cox and colleagues instead “considered the year-to-year fluctuations in global temperature,” said Richard Allan, a climate scientist at the University of Reading.

By analysing the responsiveness of short-term changes in temperature to “nudges and bumps” in the climate system, he explained, they were able to exclude the outcomes that would have resulted in devastating increases of 4C or more by 2100.

One wild card not taken into consideration by the new model is the possibility of rapid shifts in climate brought on by the planet itself. “There is indeed evidence that the climate system can undergo abrupt changes or ‘tipping points’,” Cox said.

The collapse of the gulf stream, the thawing of carbon-rich permafrost, or the melting of ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica – any of these could quickly change the equation, and not in the Earth’s favour.

Name *

E-mail *

Comment Title*

Comment *

: Characters Left

Mandatory *

Terms of use

Publishing Terms: Not to offend the author, or to persons or sanctities or attacking religions or divine self. And stay away from sectarian and racial incitement and insults.

I agree with the Terms of Use

Security Code*

worstcase global warming scenarios not credible study worstcase global warming scenarios not credible study

 



Name *

E-mail *

Comment Title*

Comment *

: Characters Left

Mandatory *

Terms of use

Publishing Terms: Not to offend the author, or to persons or sanctities or attacking religions or divine self. And stay away from sectarian and racial incitement and insults.

I agree with the Terms of Use

Security Code*

worstcase global warming scenarios not credible study worstcase global warming scenarios not credible study

 



GMT 10:41 2017 Sunday ,29 January

Memory chipmakers head into ultra-super-cycle

GMT 08:39 2017 Wednesday ,03 May

UAE hails Bahrain’s rights strides

GMT 12:39 2017 Monday ,13 March

Arsenal keeper Cech leaps to defence of Sanchez

GMT 22:15 2017 Sunday ,15 January

HRW: 50,000 displaced in Libya

GMT 12:35 2017 Sunday ,12 November

Parliamentary forum on tolerance to be held

GMT 06:49 2017 Saturday ,28 October

Ex-Guatemalan president to stand trial for corruption

GMT 08:57 2012 Thursday ,15 March

Dane Bowers hits the decks

GMT 18:37 2017 Wednesday ,05 July

UAE man abuses woman on WhatsApp

GMT 11:34 2012 Sunday ,16 September

Treat blackheads with egg white

GMT 16:26 2017 Friday ,05 May

Oman Air eyes 70th destination by 2023

GMT 09:38 2015 Friday ,19 June

Christy Turlington is new face of Biotherm

GMT 12:37 2016 Wednesday ,13 April

Fiji are 'team to beat' in Rio

GMT 09:15 2011 Tuesday ,26 July

Chelsea\'s Torres vows \'I will score\'

GMT 04:51 2017 Tuesday ,14 February

Queen Bey channels ancient Egypt at Grammys

GMT 17:58 2012 Thursday ,19 April

IMF needs Cairo support for loan

GMT 08:27 2015 Thursday ,17 December

'Hoverboards' hot for the holidays

GMT 12:10 2011 Sunday ,19 June

Alexander resolute on pension plans

GMT 15:35 2014 Tuesday ,13 May

Meeting the need for constant connectivity

GMT 12:58 2017 Friday ,17 March

$150 million worth logistic assets acquired

GMT 16:43 2011 Sunday ,17 April

\"Quiet and brilliant\"
Emiratesvoice, emirates voice
 
 Emirates Voice Facebook,emirates voice facebook  Emirates Voice Twitter,emirates voice twitter Emirates Voice Rss,emirates voice rss  Emirates Voice Youtube,emirates voice youtube  Emirates Voice Youtube,emirates voice youtube

Maintained and developed by Arabs Today Group SAL.
All rights reserved to Arab Today Media Group 2021 ©

Maintained and developed by Arabs Today Group SAL.
All rights reserved to Arab Today Media Group 2021 ©

emiratesvoieen emiratesvoiceen emiratesvoiceen emiratesvoiceen
emiratesvoice emiratesvoice emiratesvoice
emiratesvoice
بناية النخيل - رأس النبع _ خلف السفارة الفرنسية _بيروت - لبنان
emiratesvoice, Emiratesvoice, Emiratesvoice