UAE growth could reach 4 per cent this year,

The UAE Minister of Economy says he expects GDP growth to reach 3.5 to 4 per cent this year, boosted by higher oil prices and infrastructure ­projects under way ahead of Expo 2020.
That compares with growth of about 3.7 per cent last year he said, a somewhat more sanguine assessment than those of independent economists such as the IMF.
"We’re very optimistic," Sultan Al Mansouri told reporters at a Jordan-UAE investment conference in Abu Dhabi yesterday.
"The UAE economy has always held its own from everything that’s happened since 2008. We’ve had sustained positive economic growth that’s ranged from 3.5 per cent to 4 per cent. A lot of it depends on oil prices and we see at the moment that there is stability in oil prices. All the projects that have been announced for Vision 2021 are under way."
The IMF in October projected growth for the UAE of 2.3 per cent for 2016 and 2.5 per cent for 2017. Before 2015, the economy had been growing at more than 4 per cent for several years amid high oil prices.
While oil prices have roughly doubled since the lows they hit last year, at about $55 per barrel, they are far short of the $100 per barrel and more from before the 2014 crash.
There is, however, increasing optimism about a pick-up in economic activity in the country.
According to the majority of respondents to a survey commissioned by The National last month, the outlook for economic growth in the UAE has strengthened since the final quarter of last year amid a rise in oil prices and a pick-up in activity in non-oil sectors since the end of last year.
About 45 per cent of respondents to the question strongly agreed, while 47 per cent agreed, according to the survey undertaken by Borderless Access. Only 8 per cent of those polled disagreed, the survey results showed.
And the latest results of February’s Purchasing Managers’ Index survey show that optimism in the non-oil business sector is at a high of almost a year and a half.
Non-oil private sector activity picked up last month as new orders rose and prices increased for the first time in more than a year, according to the latest survey of economic sentiment in the country.
The PMI survey, sponsored by Emirates NBD and produced by IHS Markit, hit a 17-month high of 56 in February, up from 55.3 in January. A reading above 50 indicates the economy is expanding; below that figure it is contracting.
Still, many other economists remain cautious about a full economic recovery in the short term as oil prices still remain far below 2014 levels.
Standard Chartered reduced its GDP growth forecast to 2.1 per cent this year from 3 per cent, but expects the economy to grow by 3.5 per cent in 2018 ahead of Expo 2020 taking place in Dubai.
Mr Al Mansouri also said that there were no current government plans to sell shares in any companies it owns to the public.
He did not discount the possibility of future share sales in government companies on stock exchanges here but said that very much depends on the companies themselves.
"It’s quite important to leave it to the sector itself," he said. "They decide themselves when the right time to come in is. I don’t want to see IPOs that at the end of the day don’t reflect a real growth in the economy. So it is up to them."

Source: The National