Get ready for a gold rally

There has been a cautious mood in commodity markets this week as investors continue to worry about the Eurozone debt crisis and whether growth can be sustained in the US. Commodities have been moving in line with the US dollar, which has had a mixed performance over the past week. This has kept the price of oil and gold in fairly tight ranges with a bearish bias. Brent crude oil is below $120 per barrel, however it has managed to find good support around the $116.50 level, which is a significant support zone and also the 100-day moving average. We continue to think that oil will trade in a $115-$120 per barrel range for the medium-term as demand fears coming from the Eurozone crisis is balanced against continued tensions between Iran and Israel. Gold has traded with a bearish bias during the last few days. After initially diverging from the path of European stock markets, the gold/ European equity correlation has resumed. Thus, the outlook for the Eurozone sovereign crisis is going to be pivotal for the gold price going forward. Below $1,630 opens the way towards $1,600 in the near-term, and then a re-test of the $1,550 lows from late December 2011. If investor sentiment towards Europe improves in the coming days then gold may rally back towards $1,650 first and then $1,680 – the high from earlier this month.