Waiting for the final word in Aleppo

Some observers estimate the number of rebel gunmen in Syria's Aleppo at 20,000. More than 5,000 of them are foreigners from Arab and Muslim countries, belonging to al-Qaeda and other Jihadist groups. They are spreading in 17 districts – around a third of the city, armed with machine guns. After more than two months since the Aleppo “great battle" broke out, the Syrian regime still finds it hard to uproot the rebels - despite the massive military deployment sent in the city, the alleged reports about the deployment of fighters belonging to Iran and Hezbollah and the reports saying that President Bashar al-Assad himself is supervising the military operations in Aleppo. The regime might have achieved some progress on the battle ground, but it looks impossible for it to achieve any breakthrough. On the other hand, the armed opposition and its Arab, Turkish and international supporters also seems far away from winning the battle, despite the powerful statements and optimistic promises they give - especially as the international community is not interested in a direct intervention against Assad’s regime. Even Erdogan’s threats can’t be taken so seriously – we are use to see the Turks doing a lot of talking since the Syrian crisis erupted. We can say that both sides of the conflict are relatively equal, therefore neither of them look in a position to win it: this opens the door for settlements and deals. However, we can't be sure yet that these settlements will be reached soon because the battle of Aleppo is dramatically escalating. Also, the tensions between Damascus and Ankara are reaching a point where the two countries will be forced  into an open war which neither of them want. Needless to say that any settlement in the Syrian crisis has to wait until the US presidential election ends, but each party's ability to oblige its terms in this settlements will be decided by its position in the battle of Aleppo. If the rebels succeed to drive the regime's forces out of Aleppo,  they will be able to impose their control over Syria's north and north-west region, and that means the "buffer zones" and "safe corridors" will be a reality in Syria. Moreover, Damascus itself will be in danger and Assad will not be in a position to stay in the country. In the opposite scenario, in which the regime will be able to regain control over Aleppo, Syria's second biggest city, and the country's financial, business and cultural capital, the regime will be in a much stronger position in the war, so subsequently it will be in a stronger position to negotiate, and both the regime and the president will eventually keep their positions. Turkey is in a rush for the battle of Aleppo to be won by the rebels, because when this happens the Turks will be in no need for a UN resolution or a green light from the NATO to interfere directly in Syria, and the Turkish government will also get rid of the headache caused by the Syrian refugees in south Turkey, who will obviously move to Aleppo in this case. The threats imposed by the Kurds in Syria's north-east will also be eased down. The problem now for Turkey is that the scenario of a decisive win for the rebels in Aleppo is extremely unlikely to happen, as with all the previous scenarios The Turks, meanwhile are not willing to enter an open war with Syria in order to help the rebels winning the battle, and if they have the will they certainly don't have the ability. That is why Turkey has been trying recently to find a parallel political path to the ongoing battle in Aleppo, and it seems that the Turks found Assad's vice, Farouk al-Shara as the answer for what they wanted. The Turkish officials decided to name al-Shara as a candidate to succeed Assad, describing him as "a reasonable man who was not involved in the regime's oppression against the Syrian people". That is a remarkable step back in the Turks' tone. They were calling previously for bringing down the regime, but their latest proposal shows their aspirations are now limited to exchange the top of this regime with a man who has been an integral part of it for the last 40 years, serving under both Bashar and his father Hafez. It is true that Ankara is acting in a "blundering way", just like the Syrian minister of information has? But the Turks are not the only party who acts that way; all the parties involved in this conflict are blundered and confused, and this situation will most likely remain until the two most important battles are over: Aleppo in Syria, and the White House in the United States. -- The views expressed by the author do not necessarily represent or reflect the editorial policy of Arabstoday.