France’s Macron seen winning French presidential vote

Independent Emmanuel Macron will easily beat far-right leader Marine Le Pen in a runoff in the French presidential election, but the outcome of a knockout between her and conservative Francois Fillon would be closer than before, a poll showed on Monday.
The Opinionway poll showed Le Pen would get 42 per cent of votes compared to 58 per cent for Fillon if the scandal-hit Fillon made it through to the second round — Le Pen’s highest second-round estimate by polls so far this year.
The rest of the poll had similar findings to previous surveys — with Le Pen coming out with the biggest number of votes in the April 23 first round, but then losing to either Macron or Fillon in the second round on May 7.
Le Pen had 26 per cent in the first round, compared to 22 per cent for Macron, and 21 per cent for Fillon.
Macron, a centrist, would then be the likeliest candidate to take on Le Pen in the second round, with Macron expected to win with 63 per cent of votes over 37 per cent for Le Pen.
Fillon’s campaign has been hit by probes into allegations of fake work carried out by Fillon’s wife.
Meanwhile, the country’s central bank governor warned Monday that Marine Le Pen’s pledge to ditch the euro if elected French president would cost the country over 30 billion euros a year in increased borrowing costs,
With less than three months to go before the first round of the election Le Pen is polling strongly on a nationalist platform of heavily curtailing migration, relinquishing the euro and organising a referendum on France’s EU membership.
US pressure
Banque de France governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau said that pulling out of the single currency would drive up the cost of France’s borrowing.
“If we were alone, we would be helpless faced with financial market speculation … and helpless faced with US pressure on the dollar,” he told France Inter radio.
“Financing France’s public debt would cost over €30 billion [Dh117 billion] a year: that’s the equivalent of France’s annual defence budget,” he said.
Villeroy de Galhau did not give a breakdown of the calculation but said the interest on France’s debt had fallen by 1.5 per cent since it adopted the single currency.
“That is very significant for those with home loans, for business investments and all taxpayers,” he said.
He also credited the euro with keeping inflation down, causing it to fall from nearly five per cent annually before the 1992 Maastricht Treaty that ushered in the euro to under two per cent currently.
Le Pen has argued that France needs to take back control over its monetary policy to boost growth — forecast to come in at 1.3 per cent in 2017, below a Eurozone average of 1.7 per cent — and rein in unemployment.
Villeroy de Galhau acknowledged that the French economy needed to be “repaired and refurbished” but rejected the notion that the euro was the cause of its malaise.
“Many countries that share the euro with us are doing well on the economic front,” he said, warning against “tearing down the foundations, our currency the euro, which forms a very strong basis in uncertain times.”

Source: Gulfnews