Regulation, low oil prices to shape GCC

Insurers in most Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries will likely face moderate-to-high credit risk over the next 12-18 months, said a report.
The report issued by Moody’s Investors Service said low oil prices are a headwind for the GCC insurance market in the short to medium term, as they slow economic growth and weigh on government spending. Growth in GCC insurance premiums slowed to 14 percent in 2015 year-on-year from 17 percent in 2013 year-on-year, still far exceeding growth rates in advanced economies, it added.
“Weak oil prices and high exposure to volatile investment assets are driving credit risk for GCC insurers. These factors are partly offset by the low insurance penetration across the region and improving insurance regulation,” said Mohammed Ali Londe, an assistant vice president and analyst at Moody’s.
According to the report, the risk is greatest for insurers in Oman, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, reflecting their oil dependence and high break-even oil prices.
Moody’s considers asset quality to be a key credit weakness for many insurers in the region. Investment risk tends to be lower in countries with more comprehensive regulatory regimes, the report said.
The report said insurance regulation is a positive credit catalyst but standards remain uneven across the region.
The region’s regulations are evolving and are at different stages of development in each jurisdiction, it added.
GCC regulators are moving toward risk-based capital requirements and actuarial-led reserving. Moody’s views such measures positively, as they support insurers’ credit quality, although their introduction may create short-term adjustment challenges.
The insurance market’s low penetration supports premium growth. Insurance penetration — the ratio of insurance premiums to gross domestic product (GDP) — is below 2 percent in most GCC countries.
Moody’s, therefore, expects insurance premiums to keep growing at a double-digit rate, despite weak oil prices.
The advent of compulsory medical coverage in some countries and several global sporting and cultural events due to take place in the region — such as EXPO 2020 and FIFA 2022 — are also supportive.

Source: Arab News