Russia sees growth slow sharply amid Ukraine crisis

Russia on Thursday reported a sharp slowdown in economic growth in the first quarter that analysts attributed to fallout from the raging crisis in neighbouring Ukraine. The state statistics agency said the Russian economy grew by 0.9 percent between January and March over the same period last year. The figure represented an improvement to an initial 0.8 percent estimate but a steep decline from the 2.0 percent figure seen in the last quarter of 2013 "While GDP data published earlier today show that the rest of emerging europe is recovering, the region's largest economy -– Russia -– looks as though it may be in recession," said emerging markets economist Neil Shearing of Capital Economics. The International Monetary Fund last month said Russia was already in a technical recession after estimating that it had recorded two consecutive quarters of negative quarter-on-quarter growth. Top Moscow officials have also said in recent weeks that the economy might register no growth at all this year should the West follow through with its threat to impose sanctions on key sectors of Russia's economy such as energy and the arms industry. The United States and the European Union are mulling broader sanctions against Russia for its alleged attempts to splinter Ukraine by backing separatist militants in the east of the ex-Soviet state. Economists attribute Russia's slowdown in part to nearly $100 billion in investment capital that is believed to have fled the country this year because of the looming sanctions threat. Economy Minister Anton Siluanov said on Thursday that he still expected the economy to expand by 0.5 percent this year. But he also admitted that Russia's current growth forecast may be "a bit optimistic". Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev for his part told a government meeting devoted to Russia's economic problems that Moscow had to objectively face the expanded sanctions threat. Policymakers must take account of "the serious limitations that Russia has recently faced -- particularly the drop-off in investment and consumer demand." "We must assess all these factors objectively, without euphoria or excessive drama -- in other words, calmly," Medvedev said in televised remarks. Washington and Brussels have thus far unveiled two rounds of sanctions against Kremlin-linked companies and officials in both Russia and Ukraine believed to have been involved in Moscow's recent annexation of Crimea. But both EU and US officials are now mulling sanctions against specific sectors of Russia's economy should Moscow be deemed to have stood in the way of Ukraine having free and fair presidential elections on May 25. Shearing of Capital Economics said the latest data from Moscow should "lay to rest any lingering beliefs that Russia’s economy will prove to be relatively resilient in the face of the deepening crisis in Ukraine."